Probability theory is full of interesting perplexities that can interest almost any student. One thing making the study of probability so enjoyable is that so many results are counter-intuitive to what we would expect. A great example of this is called Simpson’s Paradox. There are different ways to illustrate the paradox but I will use boxes containing a mix of gold and lead balls (each ball weighing and feeling the same). We will place a mix of gold and lead balls into two different boxes, a brown box and a black box. Clearly we would rather select the more valuable gold ball therefore we want to determine which box has a better probability for such a selection. In the first scenario, the brown box contains 7 gold balls and 8 lead balls while the black box contains 4 gold balls and 5 lead balls. Which box has a better probability of selecting a gold ball at random?
The brown box has a superior probability of 7/15 (47%) compared to 4/9 (44%) in the black box. In the second scenario, there are 7 gold balls and 4 lead balls in the brown box with 11 gold balls and 7 lead balls in the black box. Again, which box has a better probability of selecting a gold ball?




